Moody’s RMS Event Response has estimated insured losses for the Los Angeles wildfires to date will likely range between $20bn and $30bn, which is below some of the preliminary ranges published elsewhere in recent days.
Losses
Citizens Property Insurance Corporation has now paid out $823mn from the three hurricanes that hit Florida last year, while the insurer of last resort's CEO has hailed the continuing impact of 2023’s reforms and estimated its policy count will drop further to around 770,000 by the end of this year.
The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)’s loss estimate from Hurricane Helene has been raised to $6.75bn with the claims total nearing the point where the organisation’s reinsurance program will be triggered.
Toronto-based Catastrophe Indices and Quantification (CatIQ) has released its fourth industry loss estimate for the 15-16 July 2024 flash flooding in southern Ontario, pegging the insured market loss at C$991mn.
The age of homes burnt, smoke damage, inflation and the California Fair Plan are variables in the losses from the Los Angeles wildfires, according to Tom Larsen of CoreLogic, which has released a $35bn to $45bn estimate of insured loss.
Property analytics firm CoreLogic has preliminarily estimated a residential and commercial insured loss for the Eaton and Palisades fires in Los Angeles of between $35bn and $45bn.
A Lloyd's market share of up to 10 percent of total insured losses from the Los Angeles wildfires would still enable the 2024 year of account – which is expected to account for the majority of syndicates' exposures – to maintain profitability, Alpha Insurance Analysts has said.
Expectations of a $30bn industry loss from the Los Angeles wildfires could mean Europe’s major reinsurers will have used up around a third of their 2025 natural catastrophe budgets in the first two weeks of the year, Citi research analyst James Shuck has warned.
Shares in Zurich, Scor and Conduit Re have been “oversold” in response to the devastating California wildfires, according to Berenberg, with all three firms highlighted as potential beneficiaries from expected catastrophe-driven rate hardening.
Morningstar DBRS has forecast a $30bn insured loss from the ongoing Los Angeles wildfires, with the credit rating agency warning that there is no immediate solution to the challenges in California’s property insurance market.
